September 12th President Bush addressed the UN General Assembly   while the White House published A Decade of Deception and Defiance: Saddam Hussein's Defiance Of the United Nations, further steps in "making the case" against Saddam. This starts a process that ultimately will result in military action against Iraq to 'cleanse' it of Saddam. See the diagram below for the outline of a possible strategy for prosecuting this war, using military, electronic, intelligence, political, religious, financial, aid, and psychological warfare. Some points of explanation of the outline beyond what is on the figure below:

• Air/Ground Warfare:     One of the first things to do is to clandestinely introduce Arrow 2 anti-missile batteries into the north and south no-fly zones, as part of a campaign to prevent Iraq from any attempt to broaden the war by targeting its neighbours. These Arrow 2 batteries will attempt to destroy any missiles that might be launched against Israel or Kuwait. The same protection will not be afforded to Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Turkey (as any Iraqi attacks on these countries would presumably move them in a pro-U.S. direction). Once this is in place the air war can begin.
  • The first goal will be the immediate destruction of all air defenses, airports, and fixed-wing aircraft. Simultaneously, air power will also target and degrade/destroy the Iraqi Command and Control infrastructure.
  • Once total air dominance is achieved (in essence an entire-country no-fly zone) selective targeted bombing of Iraq will begin. This will target all armored/mechanized divisions and Saddam's Republican Guard units. All meaningful concentrations of troops will be fixed/frozen in place. Any attempted movement out of these fixed zones will be targeted, in essence an imposition of a "no-drive zone" across the country. If they do not attempt to move, units of the regular army will not be targeted, nor (unlike the first Gulf war) will most of the civilian infrastructure e.g. water treatment plant, power plants, etc. Continuous air attacks will attempt to maintain a high rate of attrition of the targeted troop concentrations.
  • Initial ground operations would consist of special operations in the west of the country, a region that has the weakest Iraqi force deployments. Appropriate geopraphic locations will be taken, and additional Arrow 2 deployments will take place to decrease the rist towards Israel.
  • At the appropriate time (much later in the campaign), the fixed troop concentrations will be offered a time-limited safe passage to established "surrender zones"
• Electronic Warfare: (see outline) All facilities for internal and external communication will be jammed and destroyed, so that the elements of the regime are completely isolated and cut off from all news and wholly dependent on U.S. for any information on what is transpiring within the country.
• Psychological Warfare:    As part of this aspect of the war (in addition to the points shown in the outline) air power will be used to destroy all highly visible symbols of Saddam's rule. For example, U.S. radio and TV broadcasts to Iraq, as well as pamphlets dropped in population centers will publicize well in advance a schedule for the destruction of Saddam's 50+ palaces. Each of these will be levelled at the appointed date/time, a demonstration that the U.S. distinguishes between Saddam's regime and the Iraqi people, as well as a demonstration of Saddam's complete powerlessness to prevent this.
• Financial Warfare:
  • Part of what has kept Saddam in power for so long is his control of the country's economic resources, which has helped him maintain the loyalty of his commanders and cronies using both cash and goods purchased with that cash. This comes from many sources e.g. controlling and taking a cut from smuggling products into the country. These sources for Saddam will be dried up. The monetary system will be disrupted by dropping millions in counterfeit Iraqi dinars over population centers.
  • The northern no-fly zone should be extended down to the 35th parallel from the 36th parallel, so as to include the majority of Iraq's main oil fields (see map). All sanctions on these areas should be lifted, any limits on oil exportation lifted, production and export facilitated. This would have a positive effect on world oil prices, as well as generate revenue for Iraqi reconstruction in liberated areas.
• Intelligence Warfare:    Besides using intelligence to identify leadership locations and other targets, intelligence efforts will be turned to identifying, contacting, and "turning" key commanders (especially from regular army units, as opposed to Republican Guard units) by various means e.g. guaranteeing their personal safety and the safety of their families, extracting them from the battle zone and relocating them to other countries with a monetary incentives, etc. Commanders who surrender their units will be guaranteed good treatment, and will not be prosecuted for crimes, etc.
• Political Warfare:
  • It is imperative that Israel not be pulled into the conflict. The Arrow 2 batteries will guard against missiles targeting Israel. However, should any attack get through, the U.S. should put as much pressure on Israel as is needed to prevent them from taking any action against Iraq (pressure up to and including a threat of cessation of all aid to Israel).
  • A clear end game should be articulated which includes the maintenance of the territorial integrity of Iraq. It should be made clear to the Turks that they will be required to withdraw any troops they have moved across the border into the north of Iraq, and that Turkish troops will only be allowed into Iraq under the command/control of the U.S. The Kurds in the north and the Shia in the south should be allowed a significant measure of autonomy for their regions, but it should be made clear to them that this will be within a unified, federated Iraq.
  • Indictments should be brought against Saddam Hussein, his sons Uday and Quasay, and other senior leaders of his administration e.g. Tariq Aziz. A very substantial reward should be offered for turning them in.
  
• "Aid" Warfare:    Food, supplies, medicine, and medical assistance will be afforded to the 'liberated' parts of Iraq, in addition to substantial economic and infrastructure assistance.
• Religious Warfare:   Every effort should be made to gain backing for this operation from any Muslim religious leaders.

Following this outline, a war with Iraq should be of short to medium duration, and achieve its goal of regime change with minimum collateral damage.

© SNi 09/16/02