OPED Updates

OPED Updates

Events that have occurred subsequent to their writing.... Last updated: 12/21/06

OPED27 Update #4: OPED27 bemoaned the antics of "Turkmenbashi", who built palaces while the populace groaned under deprivation... Today, Thursday December 21st 2007, President Saparmurat Niyazov died of a heart attack. It is to be hoped that this will turn out to be the start of better things for his beleaguered countrymen... Turkmenistan: President's Death Brings Muted World Reaction and Dark shadows in Turkmenistan's "eternal sunshine.
OPED17 Update #4: OPED17 discussed unfortunate behavior in the Senate... December 9th, 2006 the Senate adjourned sine die having passed only 2 of the 11 FY2007 spending bills, see Congress Reaches Final Adjournment – Resolution of FY 2007 Spending Bills Pushed Off Until February.
OPED42 Update: OPED42 wished the Lebanese the best with their elections... Things aren't working out real well, it remains to be seen what the "battle of the crowds" will result in... Lebanon continues to provide good theater, but mediocre leadership
OPED41 Update: OPED41 in November 2004 predicted that within 18 months of the 2004 presidential election ".. we will have a significant case of 'buyer's remorse' over the winner...." Well, it didn't even take that long, see Graph of approval over the entire Bush administration
OPED17 Update #3: OPED17 discussed unfortunate behavior in the Senate... More recent examples (if any are needed..) include:
- Group sues to block budget law... President Bush signed into law a bill, "certified'' by the leaders of the House and Senate, when the version that cleared the House was $2 billion different from the Senate's version...
- US House as Italian campaign backdrop In March the Congress convened in joint session to hear an address by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi... He spoke in Italian with no interpreter, and the audience was prompted for applause at certain points. On returning to Italy Berlusconi said "I'm happy with respect to the welcome that Italy had at congress. They told me that there has never been such a warm welcome for any other country. They counted fifteen rounds of applause and three standing ovations, and I received goodwill and closeness on behalf of everyone, Republican and Democrats alike. It was therefore a 'bipartisan' thing". Trained seals couldn't have done better...
- The fictitious Kyl/Graham "floor debate" Anyone who has watched Senate proceedings on C-SPAN has seen Senators ask and get unanimous consent to have their remarks revised and extended, whereupon they can have passages inserted into the Congressional Record as if they had actually made the remarks on the Senate floor. Well, Senators Kyl and Graham presented an amicus curiae brief to the Supreme Court in the Hamdan vs. Rumsfeld case, which quoted their "discussion" on the Senate floor (before passage) re the intent of the bill, as reported in the CR. However it turns out that this was an example of an inserted passage. So, as this article says, "What we have are two Senators falsely suggesting--to the highest court in the land--that an imaginary dialogue inserted in the Congressional Record was in fact a live floor debate which reveals the definitive intent of Congress."
OPEDs 17 & 19 Update #2: OPED17 discussed the unfortunate behavior in the Senate, while OPED 19 discussed the defense budget of the U.S. The FY 2007 budget just unveiled provides $439.3 billion for the Department of Defense’s base budget, corresponding to a 7-percent increase over 2006 and a 48-percent increase over 2001... If you google the phrase "2007 defense budget" it returns a multitude of articles discussing defense budget "cuts." However, things are more complex - in the following artickles (using examples from the 2006 defense budget) Winslow Wheeler delves into the real size of the U.S.'s defense budget and uncovers some of the pork hidden in it...
- Defense Budget Tutorial #1: What is the Actual Size of the 2006 Defense Budget?
- Defense Budget Tutorial #2: The Smoke and Mirrors in Congress’ Defense Appropriations Bills
- Defense Budget Tutorial #3A: Pork: Where is it?
- Defense Budget Tutorial #3B: Pork: What is it?
- Defense Budget Tutorial #3C: Pork: How to get rid of it
OPED22 Update#10: OPED22 NPR.. Not your father's public radio talked about the futility of nuclear weapons use... Well, in non-U.S. news related to nuclear weapons, President Chirac in France recently engaged in nuclear sabre-rattling.... Experts See French Nuclear Stance as Assertion of EU Independence From Washington Quelle stupidite!
With the Abramahoff, Cunningham, and other scandals rocking Washington D.C. both Republicans and Democrats are rushing out "reforms." These are doomed in advance, both because neither party really wants to cut off the gravy train and because there are many very smart lawyers figuring out how to break the spirit of the regulations while preserving their letter. The only answer is to take off limits but make everything completely transparent i.e. a political "Regulation FD" as suggested in OPED 20
OPED27 Update#3: OPED27 Turkmenbashi - No Laughing Matter More horrors from Turkmenistan - Grim reality of Turkmen health care
OPED22 Update#9: OPED22 NPR.. Not your father's public radio talked about the futility of nuclear weapons use... However Pentagon Revises Nuclear Strike Plan in September 2005 the Pentagon has drafted a revised doctrine for the use of nuclear weapons...
OPED27 Update#2: OPED27 Turkmenbashi - No Laughing Matter discussed the deplorable situation in Turkmenistan and its "leader." March 2005 Turkmenbashi (President Niyazov) ordered the closure of all hospitals outside the capital. ""Why do we need such hospitals?" he said. "If people are ill, they can come to Ashgabat." President Niyazov also ordered the closure of rural libraries, saying they are pointless because village Turkmens do not read. The life expectancy in Turkmenistan has fallen to 62 years the lowest of any country in Europe and Central Asia.
OPED25 Update: OPED25 Mega-Tsunami discussed mega-tsunamis and the potential for one to be triggered by a volcano collapse in the Canary Islands. December 26th, 2004 there was an underwater earthquake measuring 9 on the Richter scale that occurred off the west coast of northern Sumatra (Indonesia). See details at the USGS Earthquake Report The event caused tsunamis to cause numerous deaths around the Indian ocean basin (see map and information on countries affected here) as walls of water reportedly up to 30 feet high hit land and devastated areas. The estimate of casualties (deaths) has climbed steadily from an initial seven thousand to eleven thousand, and up... It now stands at twenty three thousand, with the potential to go much higher as the damage is assessed. And millions have been effected - rendered homeless and subject to disease, etc. Given this, even the relativel remote risk of a mega-tsunami needs to be considered, given the potential destruction...
OPED9 Update#2: OPED9 A Government for Afghanistan discussed finding a leader for Afghanistan. Internationally-supervised elections came off almost without a hitch in October 2004 and Hamid Karzai came out a winner with 55.4% of the vote, far ahead of Younous Qanooni in second place with 16.3%. It is to be hoped that this will lead to a stronger central government that can stabilize the country. However there is still a long road ahead. Though Karzai won handily, a closer look at the vote reveals that it was spread unevenly among the various provinces. Karzai's results varied from first with 96% of the vote in Khost province to 4th with 0.8% of the vote in Panjsher. Detailed election results by candidate, province, etc. can be found from the U.N.'s web site.
OPED10 Update: OPED10 Arafat - End Of The Road from January 2002 discussed what to do with Yasser Arafat. Thirty-two months later on Arafat's illness and impending death is finally removing him from the scene. Whether this will be positive or negative in the short term remains to be seen. Greedy, grasping and unwilling/unable to share power, Arafat tightly held on to power (and money) with the result that there is no clear succession or Palestinian leadership in the wings. A period of uncertainty looks to follow, as various groups jockey for power and to get their hands on Arafat's fortune (estimated at $2-6 billion in an Al-Jazeera article). Once things start to shake out his passage will increase pressure on the US & UK to "do something" about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Bush and, to a greater extent, Tony Blair both claimed that they needed to do something about Iraq first to be able to move on resolution of this conflict. However, Arafat's obstructionism (plus the blood on his hands) was a handy excuse to avoid actually doing anything substantive. With him out of the scene the excuses and cover are gone...
OPEDs 17 & 19 Updates: OPED17 discussed the unfortunate behavior in the Senate, while OPED 19 discussed the defense budget of the U.S. The overlap between these two is spotlighted by an insider, Winston Wheeler, a recently retired National Security Adviser to four Senators. His book, "The Wastrels of Defense: How Congress Sabotages U.S. Security" lifts up the stones to expose in detail how members of Congress divert money from military readiness to pork for their home states... The book gives details of how the games are played, it names names, and is well foot-noted. A timely addition given the upcoming Presidential election. A "must read." Too bad it didn't come out 6-8 months ago. George Soros or one of the other billionaires using their personal fortunes to effect the outcomes of the elections would have done well to send a copy of this book to every Senator, Congressman, their wives and families, all the national and local newspapers, etc.
OPED 26 Update: OPED26 discussed the outcome of the John Walker Lindh case. In September '04 "enemy combatant" Yaser Esam Hamdi, held incommunicado in a naval brig for over two years for "fighting for the Taliban", was released and deported to Saudi Arabia - see the Yaser Esam Hamdi v. Donald Rumsfeld Settlement Agreement. In response to this development John walker Lindh's attorney is requesting that his 20-year sentence be revisited. More at the Free John Walker Lindh website
OPED21 Update#2: OPED21 discussed the fact that the military's reporting of various actions is often less than candid. This continues in the reporting on Iraq. Incident on Haifa Street discusses an incident that occurred 9/11/04
OPED11 Update#7: OPED11 looked at Venezuela. Earlier updates mentioned the recall referendum. Held 09/04 it resulted in a big "win" for Chavez. The election results were blessed by Jimmy Carter & Cesar Gaviria of the OAS.
OPED8 Update#2: OPED8 discussed the tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. In January '04 there are hopeful signs that tensions are easing, and India & Pakistan Agree to Begin Dialogue Next Month
OPED37 Update#2: OPED37 said that solid evidence of Iraqi WMD needed to be found to vindicate the positions of President Bush and Prime Minister Blair. Almost a year later the search still is coming up empty and David Kay, chief US weapons inspector, recently stepped down and criticized the pre-war intelligence that had indicated the existence of WMD.
OPED22 Update#9: OPED22 discussed the administration's nuclear posture review. Former Air Force Commander Criticizes U.S. Bunker-Buster Program Retired Gen. Charles Horner, who commanded the North American Aerospace Defense Command and the U.S. Space Command and was in charge of all allied air assets during the 1991 Gulf War, recently said "I realized that nuclear weapons are only good for taking out cities, they’re not good for war fighting. They have little or no utility for war fighting”... and "there is discussion about their utility and their legitimacy and I think that is exactly the wrong way to go.”
OPED20 Update#2: OPED20 discussed campaign finance reform, and the OPED20 Update below mentioned the court challenge to the McCain-Feingold Act. December '03 the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the Act.
OPED11 Update#6: OPED11 looked at Venezuela. The Venezuelan opposition turned in approximately 3.6 million signatures that they collected. Now it is up to the country's electoral commission to verify that the appropriate number of signatures was collected, and if so to schedule the referendum.
OPED11 Update#5: OPED11 looked at Venezuela. The ferment in Venezuela continues - Weekend of decision for Venezuela and Foes of Venezuela's Chavez Sign for Referendum Bid Opponents of Hugo Chavez kick off a 96-hour marathon to collect the 2.4 million signatures of registered voters needed to initiate a recall referendum.
OPED22 Update #8: OPED22 discussed the administration's nuclear posture review. November the 5th Congress voted to cut some of the administration's budgetary request for nuclear weapons research. See here for details.
OPED17 Update #2: OPED17 noted the shenanigans in "The Chamber". The Senate remained true to form the first week of November '03. When 'debating' the measure approving President Bush's request for $87 billion for the reconstruction of Iraq (the version from conference committee with the House), all but 6 senators were absent from the chamber. By agreement between the parties Senators were absent so that they would not have to go on record as voting for or against the measure, which passed by a "voice" vote. Republicans could let the measure pass and get the benefit of "supporting the President..." without a recorded vote that could be used in the future to brand them as "..big spenders...", Democrats could claim "not to have voted to spend money that should be better spent at home.." without "..voting against supporting our troops.." A bipartisan display of duplicity and lack of backbone.
OPED39 Update: OPED39 discussed the recall election in California. Governor Gray Davis was rejected, Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected with a decisive margin, and will now turn his attention to 'fixing' the budget deficit. One wonders how long people are going to remain happy with Arnold when he starts cutting spending.... On the positive side, he is taking office after the economy has 'bottomed out' so there's no where to go but up!
OPED15 Update #4: OPED15 discussed the possibility of oil exploration in the 2002 area of the ANWR. Although provisions allowing this have failed before (see Oped15 Update #3 below), a new attempt to get this into an energy bill is being made.
Quotes Page Update #1: On the Quotes page (third quote from the bottom) I discuss how White House Counsel Alberto Gonzalez seems mistakenly to believe that the President of the United States takes an oath to defend the United States (when in reality he takes an oath to defend the constitution of the United States). Well, apparently the President also does not seem to realize the difference. In an August interview with the Armed Forces Radio and Television Service President Bush the following exchange took place:
AFRTS: "One final question, Mr. President. The families of America's fighting forces, they make huge sacrifices in the name of freedom, just like the service members. You touched on it earlier. You touched on it in your speech today. For months at a time, they give up their service members, they don't know where they are, they don't hear from them; they don't know if they're safe; they don't know if they're dead or alive. What message do you have for these families today?"
President Bush: "Well my messages is that what your loved one is doing is the right thing for the country. We are called upon to defend the United States of America. I take that oath, and every soldier takes that oath. And on 9/11 our world changed and we realized the country was vulnerable and we better do something about it. And the best way to secure the homeland is to get the enemy before he gets us. At least that's my attitude. And so I — first of all, the commitment that their loved ones have made, the families of the service members have made, is in line with this business about winning and fighting war. Every person is a volunteer in our military. They've chosen to defend the United States of America. And therefore they need to get the best — if that's their attitude, and they made up their mind that's what they want to do, then my job is to get them the best equipment, the best pay, the best training possible, so if we ever have to send them in, they'll be able to do the job."
OPED37 Update: OPED37 said that once Iraq was liberated the administration would have to attempt to move forward the Israel/Palestinian issue. The US put forward the "road map" which has been accepted by the Palestinians. The Likud cabinet "approved" the road map by a majority of 12 to 7, with 4 abstaining. During the discussion Sharon created a furor by using the term "occupation" with regard to Israel's presence in Palestinian areas. However, in response to a question by a legislator from a West Bank settlement Sharon said that settlement expansion to accommodate natural growth was not restricted... "Go, and build houses for your children, your grandchildren and maybe even your great grandchildren." Through all previous 'peace processes' Israel has continued the expansion of settlements, and the true test of the administration's resolve will be if and how firmly it deals with this. Although Israel has implemented a number of 'goodwill gestures' such as the release of some Palestinian prisoners, the release of some Palestinian funds, etc. these will remain gestures. True progress will not be made until a number of settlements are dismantled... "natural growth" will kill any substantive progress.
OPED22 Update #7: OPED22 discussed the administration's nuclear posture review. The House and Senate have both passed versions of the 2004 defense authorization bill that approve $15 million for research on the 'Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator' (a nuclear weapon to destroy hardened, buried targets). The House version also repealed the 1994 prohibition on research into low-yield (below 5 kilotons) nuclear weapons, while the Senate version included a partial repeal - subject to specific Congressional approval.
OPED28 Update: OPED28 touched on the 'Amerithrax' case. Now, equipment that could have been used to prepare the anthrax has been found in a pond near Frederick, Maryland . See here for more.
OPED34 Update#2: OPED34 mentioned the fake documents that supposedly "proved" that Iraq attempted to purchase uranium from Niger. It is alleged that although the CIA debunked these documents in 2002 the State Department still referred to Iraq seeking uranium from Africa in its list of omissions from Iraq's U.N. weapons declaration, President Bush still referred to this in his State of the Union, and Colin Powell and Donald Rumsfeld both cited this 'attempt' as evidence of Iraqi malfeasance. March 17th Representative Henry Waxman sent a letter to President Bush seeking an explanation. Read an article on this - Who Lied to Whom - Seymour Hersch. Meanwhile British PM Tony Blair continued his sorry track record of making up stuff out of whole cloth - after Al Jazeera showed pictures of two dead British soldiers Blair said that they had been "executed." This was a shock to the families of the soldiers, who had been notified by their commanding officer that they had died in action. Outraged, the families denounced Blair - the government admitted that there was no evidence that the men had been executed and offered feeble apologies. Apology Attempt Angers Hero's Family & Backlash Over Claims Of Soldiers Execution.
OPED35 Update: OPED35 argued that those who support sending soldiers to war should not hide from the consequences. Here are pictures of civilian casualties in Iraq.
OPED15 Update #3: OPED15 discussed the possibility of oil exploration in the 2002 area of the ANWR. March 19th 2003 the U.S. Senate voted 52-48 (with eight Republicans voting with all but five Democrats) for an amendment stripping a provision allowing for such drilling from an omnibus budget bill.
OPED34 Update: OPED34 discussed how the U.S. administration has 'succeeded' in alienating many natural U.S. allies, and argues that this was the result of the tone, tactics, and especially the words and language they have used. March 17th this was again demonstrated during the President's speech to the nation. Though fairly restrained President Bush could not help himself, and said "Yet, some permanent members of the Security Council have publicly announced they will veto any resolution that compels the disarmament of Iraq." Of course, the countries in question will say this is not what they have said, and that what they have threatened to veto (at this time) is any resolution authorizing immediate military action against Iraq.
OPED26 Update #2: OPED26 discussed John Walker Lindh's plea agreement with the govt. The March'03 New Yorker has an article by Jane Meyer - "Lost in the Jihad. Why did the government's case against John Walker Lindh collapse? - discussing the case, showing the weakness of the government's case and the exaggerations of Walker Lindh's role in Afghanistan. In Measuring Betrayal Jane Meyer discusses the article. Someone has scanned and posted the article here.
OPED32 Update: OPED32 discussed the arrest of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed. This article - Is there more to the capture of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed than meets the eye - goes into all the permutations and combinations. Prepare to end up confused and skeptical of all you've read on the subject.
OPED22 Update #6: OPED22 discussed the administration's nuclear posture review. The U.S. Defense Department has now started a program to develop computers that would help determine when nuclear weapons should be used against underground bunkers... United States: System to Help Determine When Nuclear Force Is Needed
OPED15 Update #2: OPED15 discussed drilling for oil in the ANWR. Legislation allowing this was killed by the Democrats with some Republican crossover. Following the Republicans taking control of the Senate in the past mid-term elections it looked like the votes might be there to pass ANWR drilling. However, six Republicans senators have come out against inserting language (into a budget bill) which will allow ANWR drilling.
OPED13 Update: OPED13 discussed the damage Afghanistan's environment had suffered from years of war. Jan '03 the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released a report on environmental conditions in Afghanistan. This Afghanistan - Post Conflict Assessment makes for somber reading. (note: large PDF file). It catalogs depletion of forest and woodland resources, widespread grazing that promotes erosion, erosion that decreases the agricultural productivity of the land, poor waste management practices, a lack of proper sanitation, improper landfills that cause groundwater contamination and air pollution, improperly managed medical waste, a drought that has significantly depleted groundwater aquifers, and numerous species categorized as globally threatened (snow leopard, wild goat, markhor, Marco Polo sheep, urial, Asiatic black bear, Siberian crane, white-headed duck, marbled teal, imperial eagle, lesser kestrel, etc.) Also read an article in the NY Times - War-Scarred Afghanistan in Environmental Crisis
OPED14 Update #2: OPED14 gave examples of science making the world safer against terrorism. Now research on anthrax bacteria has resulted in genetically modified anthrax that has eradicated tumors in mice! See Potent Tumor Activity of a Urokinase-activated Engineered Anthrax Toxin for an abstract (actual article requires payment...) Quote: "The engineered toxin displayed potent tumor cell cytotoxicity to a spectrum of transplanted tumors of divers origin and could eradicate established tumors.... The data show that a simple change of protease activation specificity converts anthrax toxin from a highly lethal to a potent tumoricidal agent." This demonstrates that restrictions placed on research with toxic agents could stifle important benefits....
OPED30 Update #3: OPED30 provided some parameters for a successful intervention in Iraq. The administration recently delivered 2 Patriot batteries to Israel, which will be used to protect against any possible missile attacks in the event of a US attack on Iraq...
OPED16 Update #2: Back in February I bemoaned the fact that so many electronic gizmos are announced months or years before they actually come on the market. I specifically referenced the Danger Hiptop. Well, at the beginning of October the Danger Hiptop became available in the US as the T-Mobile Sidekick at approximately $200 See T-Mobile Sidekick™ Wireless Device Now Available or T-Mobile Sidekick. Most of Charmed Technology's stuff remains vaporware.
OPED11 Update#4: OPED11 The ferment in Venezuela continues - Caracas protests continue against Chavez
OPED27 Update: OPED27 bemoaned the situation in Turkmenistan and the cult of personality surrounding "Turkmenbashi". November 25th there was a failed assassination attempt on Turkmenbashi. Turkmenistan: Attempted Assassination of President Leads To Long List Of Suspects - Shots fired at car carrying president of Turkmenistan
OPED22 Update #5: OPED22 discussed the administration's Nuclear Posture Review, which appeared to call for the development of new nuclear weapons to strike buried, hardened, targets. The article U.S. ponders resumption of nuke-weapons test argues that "The Bush administration is laying the groundwork for the resumption of nuclear testing and the development of new nuclear weapons." See FIRE IN THE HOLE Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Options for Counterproliferation (PDF file) "A working paper that compares the potential of new nuclear weapons with that of innovative non-nuclear weapons, demonstrating that proponents of tactical nuclear weapons have consistently overestimated their destructive potential while underestimating the battlefield problems they would pose."
OPED29 Update #3: OPED29 discussed the need for President Bush to "make the case against Iraq. As predicted, after numerous calls for making "the case" the Congress finally passed a resolution giving President Bush the green light, without any really new information. Then, after weeks of tortuous give and take the U.N. unanimously passed a resolution on Iraq. See here for a view of what went on in the Security Council.
OPED26 Update: OPED26 discussed John Walker Lindh's plea agreement with the govt. Interestingly, author Rohan Gunaratna (see here for information on his book Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror, after interviewing Lindh concluded that "Mr. Lindh was never a member of al-Qaida and he neither participated in or desired to join in any al-Qaida activities. Mr. Lindh has never been a terrorist and he does not fit into the profile of a terrorist."
OPED29 Update #2: OPED29 discussed calls for "making the case" against Iraq. Well, the British government weighed in, releasing a dossier on Iraq - Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Assessment of the British Government
OPED29/30 Update: OPED29 discussed calls for President Bush to "make the case" against Iraq while OPED30 outlined a blueprint for prosecuting the war against Iraq. September 19th President Bush sent to Congress for approval a text of a joint resolution authorizing action against Iraq. Reaction was immediate and mixed.
OPED23 Update #4: OPED23 Update #3 below noted that President Bush had released his National Strategy For Homeland Security on July 16th. On September 18th the President's cybersecurity adviser Richard Clarke released A Draft National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace. It immediately came under attack, being criticized for being too weak, see for example U.S. Cybersecurity Strategy Faulted
OPED18 Update #2: OPED18 - The Congressional Budget Office released its Budget & Economic Outlook Executive Summary at the end of August '02. The budget surplus that in Jan'01 was forecast to be $5.6 trillion over the 2002-2011 timeframe (and was re-estimated in March '02 at $2.6 trillion over the same period) is now forecast to be $1 trillion over the next ten years (2003-2012). The $4.6 trillion drop is estimated to be due to: $1.3 trillion due to the EGTRRA cut over ten years, another 30% due to increased outlays (due to Congressional action, but also due to higher debt interest payments), and 40% or trillion due to changes in the economic outlook and technical changes. Much of this drop is due to decreases in tax revenue (for as yet unknown reasons, though suspects include decreased capital gains taxes, etc..). Of course, 10-year projections are notoriously volatile. This is recognized by the CBO, which has this graphic in its report.. The graph shows many possible future outcomes for the annual budget deficit/surplus over the next few years, with the most likely outcome being in the darker band.... Another 'gotcha' - more than 80 percent of the projected surplus for the 2003-2012 period accrues in the last two years because it assumes that EGTRRA's tax cuts as enacted last year expire in 2010, as scheduled by the legislation. (Of course Republicans have already proposed making the tax cuts permanent, accusing Democrats who are not on board of "wanting to raise taxes").
OPED11 Update #3: The middle of August '02 the Venezuelan Supreme Court voted to drop military rebellion charges against four military officers involved in the short-lived coup that temporarily removed Hugo Chavez from power in April. Chavez has asked his legislators in the National Assembly to have the judges removed from office, but it is doubted that he has sufficient support to achieve this. This setback is not auspicious for Chavez, given that opponents have filed many lawsuits against him - for the deaths that occurred prior to the coup, for misappropriation of government funds, for 1998 election-campaign irregularities, etc.
OPED17 Update: OPED17 noted the shenanigans in "The Chamber". Mother Jones has come out with its 2002 Diddly Awards recognizing some legislators for their 'achievements' this year.
OPED18 Update: OPED18 discussed if the 'evaporation' of the projected budget surplus and the return of budget deficits were due to the EGTRRA.... The latest estimate from the CBO is that the FY2002 deficit will end up being $157 billion. The CBO is set to release its 10-year budget projections on 8/27.
OPED22 Update #4: OPED22 At the end of July'02 the Pentagon asked Congress to approve the full $15.5 million requested (for FY2003) by the Energy Department for the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (a study of nuclear weapons designs that can destroy hardened, underground bunkers). "This concept is a critical component of the capability envisioned by the Nuclear Posture Review," said the DoD.
OPED12 Update: OPED12 mentioned that Conseco's stock (sticker symbol CNC) price was down to $3.95 Well, as of the end of trading 7/26/02 it was down to $0.86 a share making my "Enron" loss $3,328 and my actual loss $978.
OPED22 Update #3: OPED22 July 25th DefSec Donald Rumsfeld appeared to tell the Senate Armed Services Committee that U.S. adherence to the arms 'reductions' of the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (also known as the "Moscow Treaty") is conditioned on the funding of new military initiatives. See U.S.-Russia: Rumsfeld Lowers Bar for Moscow Treaty Withdrawal for more.
OPED10 Update: OPED10 considered the question of the relevance of Yasir Arafat. This paper, Yasir Arafat: Psychological Profile and Strategic Analysis by Dr. Shaul Kimhi, Dr. Shmuel Even, and Prof. Jerrold Post analyses Arafat's thinking and policy decisions based on his personality traits.
OPED23 Update #3: OPED23 outlined a framework against terrorism. On July 16th, 2002 President Bush unveiled his National Strategy for Homeland Security, which is outlined and linked here.
OPED22 Update #2: OPED22 discussed NPR and mentioned arms "reductions" proposed by the Bush administration. Originally the administration just wanted a verbal agreement with the Russians. However, when the Russians insisted on a treaty the administration agreed to a 'minimalist' treaty, called The Moscow Treaty This 3 page document requires the U.S. and Russia to reduce their warheads "so that by December 31, 2012 the aggregate number of such warheads does not exceed 1700-2200 for each Party." The treaty does not require that any warheads actually be destroyed, and the administration intends to put an unknown number of warheads into storage, so that they are available if needed in the future. In fact the treaty expires 12/31/2012, the deadline for the reductions to be in place...
OPED24 Update #3: OPED24 - Three more developments on the stock options front:
- The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) agreed July '02 to write a draft standard this year on the treatment of share-based payments, which will call for stock options to be regarded as expenses and recorded on the company's income statement. The standard will come into force in 2004. All EU companies are required to use international standards from 2005 onwards. Additionally, this may influence the FASB as the IASB and FASB attempt to align standards.
- TIAA-CREF, one of the U.S.'s largest institutional investors (managing $265 billion of assets) has launched a drive to persuade companies to treat stock options as expenses. It will be sending a letter to the chairmen of the 1,754 largest publicly traded companies asking them to discuss this possibility with their boards.
- Robert Herdman, chief accountant at the SEC, expressed his (private) view to the Financial Times that the reform of stock options accounting ought to be a low priority in implementing reforms to restore investor confidence in the financial markets. He made the point that the FASB has failed in the past to reach consensus on this subject, and that if the FASB takes up this issue it will disrupt other important reforms. "Stock options are a matter of corporate governance. we've advocated that shareholders approve all stock options, that independent directors have to approve options grants and any moves to reprice them....... Right now FASB needs not to disrupt its attention. FASB's got its hand full. If it gets into stock options, everything else would go by the wayside..."
OPED24 Update #2: OPED24 discussed accounting for stock options. On July 15th Coca-Cola announced that starting in Q4 it will deduct the costs of stock options from earnings. CEO Douglas Daft announced the change made so that earnings more clearly "reflect economic reality." A few days later the Washington Post, and Bank One followed suit.
OPED11 Update #2: The unstable political situation in Venezuela (see OPED11 ) continues to deteriorate and the nation remains polarized. President Jimmy Carter was invited to Venezuela by President Chavez to mediate between him and his opponents. Labeling this a stalling tactic, the opposition refused to meet with Carter. July 11th, 2002 saw the streets of Caracas filled by anti-Chavez demonstrators. An estimated 600,000 protestors, consisting of a coalition of labor unions, business organizations, media owners, political parties, and church leaders called for Chavez to step down. Chavez's popularity is down to 32.3% in polls. The economic situation in Venezuela continues to deteriorate - the GDP is expected to contract by 4% this year, inflation is rising, and so far this year Venezuela's currency has fallen 67% against the U.S. dollar.
OPED14 Update: OPED14 Science to the Rescue looked at some examples of science that could be brought to bear to help in the fight against terrorism. Making the Nation Safer The Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism from the Committee on Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism outlines ".. many ways in which science and engineering can contribute to making the nation safer against the threat of catastrophic terrorism..." Go here for an entire pre-publication copy of the book.
OPED2 Update: OPED2 discussed airport profiling and what profiling needs to do. Well, obviously a lot of people haven't yet understood what it is all about. Consider this - on June 7th when Al Gore was boarding a flight at Reagan National Airport he and his luggage were searched. The next day at Milwaukee's airport he was searched again. Human Events asked 10 senators the question "Al Gore was searched twice last week in U.S. airports. Isn't that a waste of limited security resources?" Of the 10, only two answered (correctly) in the affirmative. One had no opinion, and seven showed that they had no concept of what security is about. They all seemed to think that the purpose of the searches was to prove that everyone was equal. Senator John Breaux's (D-LA) answer was typical - "I think everyone ought to be subjected to the same rules, whether it's a member of Congress or a member of the Senate, all public officials." Senator Jim Jeffords (I-VT) said, "... I think it's important that we let everybody know that everybody's equal under the search sign." Senator Bill Frist (R-TN) said, ".. anybody - whether they are suspicious or not - if the lottery falls their way, needs to be searched." So, according to these luminaries, the search of passengers seems to be nothing but a feel-good exercise in democracy, and in no way related to actual security. Of course, Human Events' opinion ("Wouldn't it be more efficient to target the searches at those who fit the al Quaeda profile - namely, young Muslim men?"), while not as crazy as those of the Senators, is also wide of the mark... Since folks don't walk around with 'Muslim' printed on their foreheads this isn't particularly a valid criterion. Nor would it be valid to substitute 'Arab', since (for example) Zacarias Moussai is French, Richard Reid is British, and Jose Padilla is American, etc. .....
OPED23 Update #2: OPED23 on this page argued that one of the tracks to follow on the diplomatic front in the battle against terrorism is the use of international conventions e.g. the International Convention for the Suppression Of Terrorist Bombings and the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism. Though the U.S. had signed both of these conventions (in 1998 and 2000), neither had been ratified. On June 25th President Bush signed into law legislation to implement these two conventions. Adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1997, the first requires all parties to the convention to enact legislation to make terrorist bombings punishable, to prosecute and extradite people accused of such acts, and to cooperate internationally on related criminal proceedings. The second was adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1999, and requires signatories to detect and seize funds used for terrorist attacks, to extradite or prosecute those accused providing funds for terrorist purposes, and to cooperate with other signatories to combat terrorist funding.
OPED16 Update: Back in February I bemoaned the fact that so many electronic gizmos are announced months or years before they actually come on the market. I specifically referenced the Nokia 9290 Communicator, which although it had been available for over a year in Europe (as the 9210) was not available in the U.S. (since GSM in the US - 1900MHz - is on a different frequency than GSM in Europe - 900/1800MHz) Well, at the beginning of June the 9290 became available in the US at $599. See the Gadgets page.
OPED9 Update: Preparations are in progress for the convening of the loya jirga in Afghanistan. As mentioned in OPED9, this is supposed to decide the future shape of government in Afghanistan after 6 months of Hamid Karzai's interim administration. Jirga members are chosen in two steps - in the first more than 300 districts choose 40-60 delegates by show of hands, and these delegates then travel to one of eight regional centers to choose a few delegates by secret ballot. These delegates will travel to Kabul the second week of June, to meet and agree on a power-sharing agreement. They are to agree to "a broad-based, gender-sensitive, multi-ethnic, and fully representative government", and choose a new interim head of state, a cabinet, a committee to create a new constitution, as well as a parliament that will serve for eighteen months. Over the past few months a number of delegates have been murdered, and there have been reports of bribery and intimidation. The jirga has been portrayed as Afghanistan's traditional method of decision-making for hundreds of years. However they usually have been more of a mechanism by which new rulers have confirmed the status quo, with a few days of debate after which the government's position has been ratified. It remains to be seen if it will have a significant impact on rebuilding Afghanistan. Some skepticism is in order, as displayed by Sheikh Asif Mohseni (a Shia leader in Kabul and a former Mujahideen commander) quoted in the Financial Times as saying "They say this Loya Jirga is part of our cultural heritage, well this is true. But we also used to ride donkeys. Donkeys are a part of our cultural heritage, but we all drive Toyotas now"
OPED23 Update: OPED23 With 16 million cargo containers entering the U.S. every year customs is only able to inspect a miniscule 2-3% of incoming containers. OPED26, on the Homeland Security page noted the need to 'Extend US Security Borders' as a part of 'Defense Perimeter Definition.' A pilot project has just been announced in which U.S. customs agents will be assisting in inspecting container cargo in Singapore (world's second busiest container port, behind Hong Kong). Similar agreements are being arranged with other important container ports of origin, such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Bremerhaven. Robert Bonner, U.S. Customs Commissioner, announced that the U.S. will reach similar agreements with the top 20 ports of origin (estimated to account for 2/3rds of all containers destined for the U.S.). It is expected that this will force smaller ports to arrange similar security arrangements so that their cargoes will not be disadvantaged by severe security delays. This initiative aims to ensure that high-risk containers are inspected before they reach the U.S., to prevent them being used to smuggle in terrorists or WMD...
OPED8 Update: OPED8 discussed the tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Concerned that tensions between these two countries risked getting in the way of the war on terror the US decided to send Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca to the area. As she was heading to the region there was an 5/14/02 attack by Islamic militants that killed 34 , mostly women and children. President Bush denounced the "terrorist attack" but urged restraint...
OPED24 Update: OPED24 discussed accounting for stock options. Business interest and politicians have come out against changing the present treatment of stock options, as has President Bush. On 5/14 Standard & Poor's announced that it will now take the cost of stock options awards into account while assessing and reporting on the corporate performance of companies in its US indices and Compustat database. Though this does not change the accounting rules it is expected to put pressure on companies to disclose more information...
OPED15 Update: OPED15 discussed the amount of oil available in the "1002" area of the ANWR. April 18th backers of drilling failed by a vote of 46 to 54 in the Senate to end a Democratic filibuster. By falling below 50 votes, they also lost the ability to claim that a majority of the Senate supported drilling and that it was only derailed by parliamentary procedures by the mostly Democrat opponents of drilling. Although ANWR drilling passed the House and thus will be part of House-Senate negotiations to reconcile their differing versions of an energy reform bill, it is thought unlikely that ANWR drilling will survive the conference.
OPED22 Update: OPED22 mentioned the administration's plan to "reduce" US warheads. According to the Pentagon the 'reduction' won't begin until FY2004, since no additional funds are being requested from Congress in the FY2003 budget for removing warheads from weapons systems.
OPED21 Update: DoD/Donald Rumsfeld 'awarded' a 2002 Jefferson Muzzle award by the Thomas Jefferson Center for the Protection of Free Expression.
OPED20 Update: The campaign finance reform bill, now called the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (see OPED20) passed the Senate and was signed into law by President Bush. A legal challenge was immediately brought by Senate Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and a broad coalition of organizations. See here for more information.
OPED11 Update: The unstable political situation in Venezuela (see OPED11 ) continued to deteriorate. Following President Chavez's action in appointing a new board for Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) further strikes and demonstrations broke out. On 4/11 a huge demonstration of 150,000 in Caracas was fired upon, causing fourteen deaths and 350 wounded. The next day Chavez resigned under heavy pressure from the armed forces, and was placed under arrest. An interim civilian government was appointed. However, there is a strong possibility of unrest as Chavez supporters protest his ouster. Parts of the armed forces may also be dissatisfied with his removal. Initially it was announced that he would be prosecuted, but now it looks like he may be allowed to leave the country.... However the situation is very fluid and can change... Update to this update: 4/13 counter-demonstrations were held by Chavez supporters. A number of deaths were reported, and 4/14 Chavez returned to the presidential palace, and power..
OPED5 Update: On 4/12 AG Ashcroft announced that attorney Lynne Stewart and 3 others had been arrested and charged with helping the jailed blind cleric Omar Abdel Rahman to communicate with the Egyptian Islamic Group (terrorist group). In this case the authorities obviously did NOT make a decision to monitor the attorney-client communications as provided for in the recent regulation change. As mentioned in OPED5 if they had utilized the new rule they would have been required to notify Stewart and Rahman of the monitoring and would NOT have been able to use any information thereby gathered in a prosecution. The authorities just used the avenues already available to them under the law (judicial authorization for surveillance..), which begs the question of why the new rule was introduced in the first place....